My Farmer's Almanac Prediction

For most of my life, I’ve been hearing about the Old Farmer's Almanac and its “uncanny” weather predictions.

Not being a farmer, I never paid much attention.

But in recent years, I’ve been wondering just how accurate these annual predictions could be. I mean, let’s face it: Even our college-trained, super-smart, so-called “meteorologists” can’t really predict the weather more than about five days out.

And yet, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has been predicting it 365 days ahead since 1792 when George Washington was president. That’s 230 years!

Yes, the “little yellow book,” as it’s known, has an uninterrupted history that’s the envy of the publishing world.

But the OFA tends to downplay its “scientific” credentials, calling itself (on the top of the front cover) “Useful, with a pleasant degree of humor” thrown in. That’s because it contains far more than weather predictions, even though that’s what it’s most famous for.

The little book also has planting charts, jokes, poems, recipes and a host of other information for its downhome readers.

But let’s get to the meat of it: Is the OFA an accurate predictor of the weather?

Well, if you ask the folks who put out the publication from the tiny village of Dublin, New Hampshire, the answer is yes, much of the time. They claim an average accuracy of 80 percent, which – if true – boggles the mind.

So how do they do it?

That’s a somewhat closely guarded secret, but they do admit the forecasts are based on a theory developed by the astronomer Galileo in the 17th century, which held that numerous sunspots on the sun occurred in cycles of about 11 years – on average – with a high degree of sunspots possibly foretelling a warmer year ahead.

Or, maybe not...?

And how that can be sliced and diced to predict the weather for different parts of a large country like the U.S. is an unanswered question.

But more than 3 million copies are printed and sold each year, with the latest edition set for release in September. And that indicates a lot of believers.

The publishers acknowledge OFA’s success over the decades has depended largely on one thing: a perception of accuracy.

“It didn’t have to be right all the time, just right most of the time (the 80 percent claim). That perception that it was (right) is a big part of why the Almanac has endured,” they say.

To me, the OFA is kind of like the annual Groundhog Day drama: Will the oversized gopher see his shadow when he emerges (is dragged out) from his den? If he does (in other words, the sun is shining) there will be six more weeks of winter. If not (it’s cloudy), it could mean an early Spring.

Not too scientific, sort of like the OFA.

Just so you know: An early release of the upcoming OFA 2023 is predicting “an extreme winter forecast” for much of the eastern and middle U.S. Those living in the far northwest can expect “brisk” weather while those in the southwest can look forward to “mild and drier than normal” winter conditions.

Two hundred and twenty-five years of continuous publishing is certainly an enviable record for the OFA, which calls itself “the best-selling annual periodical in North America.”

But in an era of increasing global climate change, I wonder how much longer people will turn to the OFA for weather information. A 2013 study showed just 18 percent of farmers were still using it when planning their crops.

And that was NINE years ago -- before climate change really began to kick into high gear.

My prediction? Sadly, the Old Farmer’s Almanac will soon pass away.

Hopefully, I’ll be at least 80 percent right.